Broker Check
False Prophets

False Prophets

April 09, 2024

We seem to be living in the golden age for scammers and charlatans. The calls that my phone identifies as “Spam Risk” would more accurately be labeled as “Scam Risk.” We continue to hear stories from clients, family members, friends, and colleagues about being either victims or near victims of an ever-increasing array of scams. While some of these are particularly egregious, it is the more subtle, under the radar deceptive practices we all face constantly that worry me the most. I’ve highlighted some of the best advice I’ve picked up along the way below.

Develop a healthy sense of skepticism. There are wolves around every corner waiting for an easy meal. As Stephen King says, “The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool.” What you have, other people will want, and many will use nefarious means to separate you from it. Make people earn your trust. Your gut instinct isn’t enough. Why? Because we all have an inherent tendency towards believing we have more control over our circumstances than we actually do. This is known in psychological terms as the “illusion of control.” Shrewd charlatans (i.e., certain politicians, salesman, internet scammers, social media “influencers”, etc.) know this better than we do and have developed highly elaborate and effective means to exploit it.

Warren Buffet elaborated on this in his most recent annual letter to Berkshire-Hathaway shareholders with an anecdote about his sister, Bertie. “She is sensible –very sensible – instinctively knowing that pundits should always be ignored. After all, if she could reliably predict tomorrow’s winners, would she freely share her valuable insights and thereby increase competitive buying? That would be like finding gold and then handing a map to the neighbors showing its location.” What he calls pundits, I call false prophets. Once you get burned by one, they are much easier to spot. This is the main reason I don’t watch financial news channels.

I say all this with one caveat; be careful not to let skepticism turn into cynicism. Mr. Buffet wisely used the word sensible to describe his sister. Jesus of Nazareth said it best, “Therefore, be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves.” My half century of experience has taught me the best way to walk that fine line is to relentlessly pursue knowledge. Don’t let others do your thinking for you.

Be on the lookout for the next “From Left Field” post in the coming weeks. We are compiling a list of suggested readings to aid you in your own relentless pursuit of knowledge.

“From Left Field” double play: